June 17, 2012
ATHENS, GREECE — An FT report saying that the Greek vote is set to end in “stalemate” is the buzz of the moment.
The gist is that the election could have a nightmare outcome, where still no party captures enough support so that a coalition government might be formed.
Remember, the whole reason Greece is voting right now is because this is what happened at the May 6 election.
But people here have been skeptical of this outcome. For one thing, the assumption is that the major parties will see some sort of coalescing of the vote, as voters who voted for fringe candidates last time choose between the majors. Beyond that, the pressure internally and externally to form a government fast is immense.
Anything’s possible, and we’ll know more in just a few hours, but… this probably isn’t the base case.
The most likely outcomes are: New Democracy wins and is able to cobble together a weak government or SYRIZA wins, and threatens to torpedo the entire bailout process.
…article originally appeared on Businessinsider